Plan B was to leave Hamble on Wednesday the 12th, but a spanner has been thrown into the works; on Monday a structural problems led to a rail bridge over the Thames and the track between Oxford and Didcot being closed until the end of the month. It is a busy commuter route to London and there is insufficient bus availably to cope. To go to the boat by rail I will have to go via London, but the Bicester - London line has limited capacity and is even more overcrowded than usual with people diverting from Oxford. Trying to get to Southampton and the Hamble on a working day does not look like a good idea.
Plan C is therefore to revictual the boat on Saturday and I will make the trek via London with weekend train and bus timetables on Sunday or take a coach from Oxford.
That is the extent of the plan, yesterday three models showed favourable winds from Monday or Tuesday for at least 5 days. Now each shows a depression out in the Atlantic developing differently and taking a slightly different route which could give strong adverse winds or benign conditions.
Forecasts on the 5th April for 07:30 on the 11th April and wind direction and strength off the Isle of Wight. On the 4th all three had been fairly close to the European model below. The ECMWF and GFS diverge further through Saturday, the UK models does not go out that far.
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| European model, ECMWF W by S, 4 - 6 knots.. |
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| American model, GFS WNW 21-32 knots. |
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| UK Met Office W by S, 13 - 25 knots. |
I doubt I'll know when I will leave or were stop over places will be until I am on the boat and perhaps not for several days thereafter.
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| ECMWF forecast for Wednesday 12th April |
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