The forecasts are still all over the place with forecasts not agreeing, hardly surprising with part of a system going overhead.
UK Met Office model on Tuesday morning. |
Again met Roeland in his A24 "Hotfoot", this time not racing with his wife aboard. |
Lyme Regis to Lands End including the Isles of Scilly - Strong wind warning
24 hour forecast: Cyclonic 2 to 4, increasing 4 to 6, becoming northwest 4 or 5 later. Slight or moderate, occasionally smooth in sheltered north and rough in far west. Occasional rain or showers. Moderate or good, occasionally poor.
Outlook for the following 24 hours: Northwest 3 to 5. Smooth or slight, but moderate west of the Lizard. Showers. Good.
At first this did not overly concern me but I checked out the domestic forecast, often a good idea, it's a "post code" automated forecast but the UKMO model is updated more frequently than any other, this showed
The domestic forecast for St Mawes @ 09:00, at 07:00 the wind was easterly 6 knots. |
The wind strength was much lower but that is not unusual as the system allows for the wind to slow over land but it shows the wind veering from the East to the North-west rather than backing. That would make the anchorage exposed to the south-westerly, during the day a F6 should not be dangerous in St Mawes but it would certainly be uncomfortable so, although it was raining a little and misty I decided to head north for some shelter and I was away 10 minutes later.
There was a minor drama as I left, a fishing boat reporting a yacht probably aground in Bream Cove just north of the Helford river. The fishing boat could not get close enough to see what was going on or if there was any one aboard, and although I probably draw more water than his boat and am single handed, I had the dinghy in tow so could anchor and go in to investigate, as it was only 20 minutes away I started off in that direction but the coastguard, having checked their records (it took a while, probably because the name of the boat was unknown; one reason to have the boats name on the dodgers), came back on to say that the owner was aware and arranging recovery so we both went about our business.
UK Met Office forecast for mid day Friday. |
And the ECMWF for mid day Friday. |
Update: Typical, 21:00 and the wind has not gone above 8 knots and hidden here it is mainly calm, now the mist has cleared it is warm and humid, what wind there is from here to Scilly is already NW so I could probably have stayed where I was. Hopefully strong winds will not be delayed too long or they could cause problems tomorrow. I have another paid for nigh here if I need it but I’ll probably go back to St Mawes tomorrow. And now the jet stream is making the forecast for the weekend, not so good and difficult to predict. 🤬🤬
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