I made a quick trip down to ready the boat for sea in case I decide to leave at relatively short notice as, given the medium range forecast, could be necessary.
"Confidence is lower than normal, but blocked or slow-moving weather patterns are most probable for the first half of April. This can lead to slow-moving areas of low and high pressure and, depending on their location..." - UKMO19/3/2025.
The ECMWF and GFS models are quite far apart although both show a low to the NE the rest of the pattern is rather different. Neither look that good around the 29th (as far out as I can easily get copies of the models) and I am sure both will change, but no one knows how.
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The ECMWF model for midday Sat 29th via Predictwind. A brisk
north westerly is not what I want! |
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| The GFS model for the same time. |
The tide is best for heading north from the 30th till the 3rd or 4th with the 2nd optimal, starting at 06:00 from Dale to allow for reasonable sleep before what could be a long day to Wiklow or Dublin. Earlier gives a bit more tide but earlier starts and the 31st has the highest tide of the year which could make for very lumpy seas wind against tide.
I will need to make a decision 3 or 4 days before departure, one to take bedding, cloths and fresh food to the boat, one to bring the car home and a third to return by train and get out of the marina to overnight at anchor off Dale for an early start next day.
Leaving direct from Milford means leaving at least an hour earlier and a lock gate at Milford Marina is currently (Thursday 20th) broken with no date for repair, so I can only get out in the two hours before high water, on the 2nd this would be from 07:35 delaying me by about 3 hours and loosing half a tide so I might need an extra days notice to get down earlier and spend a day at anchor.
As is usually the case, I'll have to wait and see and hope that I'll not be delayed till the next favourable tide in the middle of April.
Update 22 March.
Great 😠😠. The GFS is showing poor weather for next weekend but the more reliable ECMWF looks more promising, although I don't like the look of the low out to the northwest.
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Its a long way off, but the ECMWF is currently showing a couple
of days of near ideal conditions for heading north on
Sunday the 30th. |
So I went to confirm train times for Saturday to find engineering work is taking place between Didcot Parkway and Chippenham / Bristol Parkway, closing all lines. There is further disruption on Chilton railways. A bus replacement service is operating but it would take for ever and the system will not even give me a price. The only alternative route is via Birmingham on slow trains, a very long trip not arriving until evening and costing more than double the normal fare.
So, if the weather still looks good early next week it will be down to Milford on Wednesday evening after a Chiropractic appointment, home on Thursday and back by rail on Friday for very early start on Sunday if the forecast holds, a day before the very high tides so care will be needed. It looks like my trip down on the 18th was unnecessary as I'll have time on Saturday.
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An aggressive plan to get to Tobermory, taking full account of tides,
I'm sure it will change but a good starting point and I have nothing
else to do whilst waiting. A few days delay at any point will make
for fewer early starts. |
Friday 28th March
On board and ready to go but the weather is not cooperating:
St Davids Head to Great Orme Head, including St Georges Channel - Strong wind warning
24 hour forecast: Westerly or northwesterly 4 or 5, backing westerly or southwesterly 2 to 4, increasing 6 to gale 8. Slight or moderate. Occasional rain or drizzle later. Good, occasionally moderate later.
Outlook for the following 24 hours: Southwesterly 4 to 6, veering westerly or northwesterly 3 to 5, becoming variable 2 or 3 later. Slight or moderate. Rain or drizzle for a time at first. Moderate or poor, becoming good.
I guess I’ll be moving to Dale on Sunday evening to head out on Monday.
And he is Off! Click her for the first couple of days to Wicklow in Ireland
