Wednesday, April 2, 2025

2025 2nd April Day 3 - ?, Weather and options,

Wednesday 3rd.

Written in stages as I go through the planning process. Anoraks on, intended to get my thoughts together and mainly of interest to yachties. 

Lunch time:

Very unusually all of the models are consistent into next week, differing only in local details mainly waves on the isobars around the high pressure area, unfortunately the detail matters to me and they will almost certainly change!

The ECMWF and UKMO models for lunch time on Sunday
the GFS, Spire and Predictwind's PWG models are very similar
only Predict wind's PWE is different and not around UK, it
shows a second Atlantic low south of Greenland.
Close predictions from the ECMWF and UKMO for Sunday
lunchtime 
Winds start getting lite on Monday evening and very lite on Tuesday and turning to the North in places so a dash north as soon as the weather permits is the preferred option.

So the draft plan is to leave early Sunday but where too? The only viable options given the wind direction are likely to be Ardglass, Bangor or Larne / Brown's Bay. Ardglass gives the chance of more sleep but if the wind is stronger than forecast the entrance can be tricky and it is not that far north. The others are long legs and dependant on the getting through or bi-passing Donaghadee / Copeland Sound at the entrance to Belfast Lough. Tides run strong from Strangford but there is not a lot to be done about that unless the arrival at Donaghadee is towards the end of the ebb (North of Dundalk the ebb runs north).

The tide turns N in the Sound @ HW Dover -01:15 and turns S @ HW Dover + 04:45

On Sunday

HW Dover is at 06:20 and 19:00

So a favourable tide from 05:05 till 11:05 & 17:45 till 23:45 and about 50 minutes later on Monday.

I have been through The Sound a number of times and am OK going through in the dark, especially a day from neaps. Great care is required at all times and without local knowledge going through on a spring tide in the dark could be very challenging if the GPS failed at the wrong moment.

I already had a route planned from Howth to Bangor from when I was last in Howth in 2023 (link opens in new window), although it needed a few tweaks to avoid Howth Sound at night which I have not been through before and to go outside Lambay Island - inside has loads of pot buoys.   This shows Bangor is feasible but at 4 knots is a very long day at 22 hours:

Seapro timings UCT, GMT in old non PC money.
PL = Port Lateral Buoy, NC = North Cardinal, etc.
Browns Bay would also be possible but Bangor gives a chance of a few hours sleep before heading further north, especially if I can make better than 4 knots which I should do. The model shows that at 4.5 knots I arrive at 23:34L, at 5 knots 21:53L and at an unlikely but possible 5.5 knots at 20:27L, probably +/- 30 minutes given it will be almost on neaps. In 2023 I took 19 hours.

Life is so much easier having the computer to do these calcs than working it out on paper, I doubt I would have done more than one or two manual sets of calcs.

Now I have to see if Bangor, across the north Channel to Gigha is feasible or if a short hop to Browns Browns Bay is in order. Unfortunately places further north such as Red Bay are unlikely to be tenable after prolonged easterly winds.

Time for a break to ease my back and get a shower.

Late Afternoon:

Diesel replenished so in dire straights I have a range of 300 miles with a small reserve. Back to planning.

From Bangor the tide runs north from about 09:00, so time for a reasonable amount of sleep if I start c 08:00 it is an easy trip to Browns Bay but possible issues later with little or no wind. An option to test is a direct route direct across the North Channel from Bangor, something I have not done, although I did the reverse in May 2022 and June 2024 (links open in a new window), both were very tiring. 

The models all predict very favourable S - SE winds on Monday (I have heard that before!) but dying away starting in the east in the early evening, if that happened I would be under engine making c 5 knots at most economic speed which might help the average speed. Not something worth factoring in 5 days ahead but something to consider on the day.

Machrihanish bay (the Green anchor)
might be an option.
Unfortunately an 08:00 start from Bangor making 4 knots would not get me to Gigha until midnight and the anchorages I have used are not that easy to get into and are unlit. Ardminish Bay is lit and should be practical. To make it in daylight I would need to leave at 07:00 and make 4.5 knots or more realistically leave earlier and / or use the engine to make >= 5 knots for at least part of the way. At 5 knots leaving at 08:00 I would arrive at approximately 19:00.

A better alterative if the sea is calm, which it might well be after easterly winds, would be to anchor in Machrihanish Bay, 11 miles north of the south point of the Mull of Kyntire which at 4 knots I could get to at dusk. A good option but one that I can't rely on with a decision to anchor there only possible when close by.

A well lit alternate that I am quite familiar with is Port Ellen on Islay or the near by anchorage.

Route plan to Port Ellen.  at 4 knts and starting at 07:00 UTC.
I'll have to decide this on the day, depending on the then forecast and how tired I am but it is a good starting point and all options will work a day later, probably starting an hour later.

Once I am at Gigha, Islay or Machrihanish light winds are of less concern as I can while away the days making short hops visiting some new places, as long as I am somewhere safe if the promised strong winds arrive at the end of the week, a dash to Loch Aline on the Sound of Mull is probably favourite.

If the |ECMWF is correct I'll need to be somewhere safe by Friday
week. The GFS disagrees and the UKMO does not release info
that far ahead.
Will be updated through the week.

Update Wednesday evening 

Weather anoraks or anyone particularly interested in the weather next week and for later in April this Met office video may be of interest. https://youtu.be/KjHVYPms76g?si=5ORMcvdZACQXM4ZT 

2025 1st April, Day 3 to Howth.

Draft

Needing sleep and with the tide setting north at around 07:30 I did not set the alarm and was awake about then, tidied up, reviewed the weather - not good for the rest of the week, but I will leave the whinge for a separate post on the weather so it can be skipped and left at 08:40.

Wicklow anchorage.

Some wind set in as I was taking the above video and I was away shortly after in a nice but again chilly SE wind, mainly around 10 knots over the ground (less over the water with the strong tide) but occasionally reaching F5 and I had a quick passage to the north entrance to Dublin Bay.

The wind died away as I reached the main shipping channel and for once there was no traffic although the fast ferry was not too far away, so not wanting to hang around in the shipping channel and less than 4 miles from Howth I put the engine on and got the sails in for an orderly entrance to Howth at high water.

Ireland's Eye guarding Howth Sound, Howth marina out
of picture left.
Sunset close to low water 1 day after the spring tide.
Low water 2 days after the spring tide.
26.4 miles in 4:30.

2025 Milford to Howth

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

2025 30-31st March, Days 1 & 2 to Dale and Wicklow.

Draft

I left on Sunday evening during free flow (for convenience, it turns out the lock gates were fixed but for some reason I was not on the email list and no one thought to put a note on the Facebook post to say it was fixed) with a promise from the models for a week of good weather and helpful winds, the first prophesy still looks correct but the wind forecast changed for the worst that evening and at the time of writing (Tuesday pm) still looks problematic, more of which later.

A present but cool trip to anchor off Dale for an early start next morning.

Dale anchorage, later in the season there would
be quite a few boats anchored here when the
wind is from the west.
With the highest, and lowest, tides of the year I anchored a bit further out than usual as the forecast, which was wrong again, said the wind would turn easterly but light but enough to swing me into shallower water.

I was up and away at 04:15 with no wind and a smooth sea. Butting out against the tide was a bit slow but the tide turns westerly of St Anne's Head well before high water in The Haven.

I over estimated how quickly the west doing tide increases in strength and was half an hour late to my waypoint off of South Bishop but things then speeded up in a big way:
Making 5 knots through the water and almost 12 over the
ground thanks to the highest tide of the year.
Unfortunately none of the promised wind arrived and it was an 18 hour motor.
Despite the curved track I did not change course by
more than 5 degrees from passing the S Bishop Lt
west of St David's Head until north of the Arklow
bank a few miles short of Wicklow.
Sunset over Arklow Bank

Anchoring off Wicklow was  risking a disturbed night and a possible early exit as there is no shelter from the easterly wind forecast for the area but the evening download of the main models suggested a wind slightly south of east on this bit of coast so I opted for some needed sleep and was lucky, there was little or no wind and I had a quite night and 6 or 7 hours of rather broken sleep, it being particularly cold and I could not get my feet warm.
 
Contrary to the forecast yesterday, quite a bit of wind is coming, and on Wednesday or Thursday likely from the NE - realistically I can’t get to Ardglass before it arrives and there are no anchorages I would want to be in with a F6 SE backing NE so if the forecasts are the same in the morning I will sail to Howth just N of Dublin in a promised fresh breeze and stay in the Marina, probably till Friday.

96 GPS miles in 18 hours from Dale. Sunny most of the way, even warm at times with a spot of sun bathing but cold early and late,