Wednesday 3rd.
Contrary to my previous post I have shown great restraint and there is no big whinge but anoraks on, intended to get my thoughts together and to keep track of trends. It’s probably mainly of interest to yachties.
Written in several stages as I go through the planning process.
Lunch time:
Very unusually all of the models are consistent into next week, differing only in local details mainly waves on the isobars around the high pressure area, unfortunately the detail matters to me and they will almost certainly change!
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The ECMWF and UKMO models for lunch time on Sunday
the GFS, Spire and Predictwind's PWG models are very similar
only Predict wind's PWE is different and not around UK, it
shows a second Atlantic low south of Greenland. |
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Close predictions from the ECMWF and UKMO for Sunday
lunchtime |
Winds start getting lite on Monday evening and very lite on Tuesday and turning to the North in places so a dash north as soon as the weather permits is the preferred option.
So the draft plan is to leave early Sunday but where too? The only viable options given the wind direction are likely to be Ardglass, Bangor or Larne / Brown's Bay. Ardglass gives the chance of more sleep but if the wind is stronger than forecast the entrance can be tricky and it is not that far north. The others are long legs and dependant on the getting through or bi-passing Donaghadee / Copeland Sound at the entrance to Belfast Lough. From my piece "Passage Making: The West Coast"
"The admiralty chart notes that "Only power-driven vessels with local knowledge and a speed of at least 10 knots should use the sound against the stream". Note also that the tide can switch very quickly, I have sneaked through north bound with the last of the favourable tide at Foreland Point and then had 2 knots against off Carn Point."
Tides run strong north from Strangford but there is not a lot to be done about that unless the arrival at Donaghadee is towards the end of the ebb (North of Dundalk the ebb runs north).
The tide turns N in the Sound @ HW Dover -01:15 and turns S @ HW Dover + 04:45
On Sunday
HW Dover is at 06:20 and 19:00
So a favourable tide from 05:05 till 11:05 & 17:45 till 23:45 and about 50 minutes later on Monday.
I have been through The Sound a number of times and am OK going through in the dark, especially a day from neaps. Care is required at all times and without local knowledge going through on a spring tide in the dark could be challenging if the GPS failed at the wrong moment.
I already had a route planned from Howth to Bangor from when I was last in Howth
in 2023 (link opens in new window), although it needed a few tweaks to avoid Howth Sound at night which I have not been through before and to go outside Lambay Island - inside has loads of pot buoys. This shows Bangor is feasible but at 4 knots is a very long day at 22 hours:
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Seapro timings UCT, GMT in old non PC money.
PL = Port Lateral Buoy, NC = North Cardinal, etc. |
Browns Bay would also be possible but Bangor gives a chance of a few hours sleep before heading further north, especially if I can make better than 4 knots which I should do. The model shows that at 4.5 knots I arrive at 23:34L, at 5 knots 21:53L and at an unlikely but possible 5.5 knots at 20:27L, probably +/- 30 minutes given it will be almost on neaps. In 2023 I took 19 hours.
Life is so much easier having the computer to do these calcs than working it out on paper, I doubt I would have done more than one or two manual sets of calcs.
Now I have to see if Bangor, across the north Channel to Gigha is feasible or if a short hop to Browns Browns Bay is in order. Unfortunately places further north on the Irish coast such as Red Bay are unlikely to be tenable after prolonged easterly winds.
Time for a break to ease my back and get a shower.
Late Afternoon:
Diesel replenished so in dire straights I have a range of 300 miles with a small reserve. Back to planning.
From Bangor the tide runs north from about 09:00, so time for a reasonable amount of sleep if I start c 08:00 it is an easy trip to Browns Bay but possible issues later with little or no wind. An option to test is a direct route across the North Channel from Bangor, something I have not done, although I did the reverse in
May 2022 and
June 2024 (links open in a new window), both were very tiring.
The models all predict very favourable S - SE winds on Monday (I have heard that before!) but dying away starting in the east in the early evening, if that happened I would be under engine making c 5 knots at most economic speed which might help the average speed. Not something worth factoring in 5 days ahead but something to consider on the day.
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Machrihanish bay (the Green anchor)
might be an option. |
Unfortunately an 08:00 start from Bangor making 4 knots would not get me to Gigha until midnight and the anchorages I have used are not that easy to get into and are unlit. Ardminish Bay is lit and should be practical. To make it in daylight I would need to leave at 07:00 and make 4.5 knots or more realistically leave earlier and / or use the engine to make >= 5 knots for at least part of the way. At 5 knots leaving at 08:00 I would arrive at approximately 19:00.
A better alterative if the sea is calm, which it might well be after easterly winds, would be to anchor in Machrihanish Bay, 11 miles north of the south point of the Mull of Kyntire which at 4 knots I could get to at dusk. A good option but one that I can't rely on with a decision to anchor there only possible when close by.
[2 tables added Thursday]
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| 08:00L start at 4 knts. |
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The earlier the start the better for the tide around the Mull
of Kintyre but after a long day on Sunday it is best to be
realistic and assume a sensible start time, if I'm awake I'll
go earlier. Times UTC. |
A well lit alternate that I am quite familiar with is Port Ellen on Islay or the near by anchorage.
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| Route plan to Port Ellen. at 4 knts and starting at 07:00 UTC. |
I'll have to decide this on the day, depending on the then forecast and how tired I am but it is a good starting point and all options will work a day later, probably starting an hour later.
Once I am at Gigha, Islay or Machrihanish light winds are of less concern as I can while away the days making short hops visiting some new places, as long as I am somewhere safe if the promised strong winds arrive at the end of the week, a dash to Loch Aline on the Sound of Mull is probably favourite.
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If the |ECMWF is correct I'll need to be somewhere safe by Friday
week. The GFS disagrees and the UKMO does not release info
that far ahead. |
Will be updated through the week.
Update Wednesday evening.
Update Thursday.
Some divergence between the models for Sunday , if the UKMO is correct it could be rather more blowy than I would like until lunch time. You never know this might be what happens.
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| Monday morning |
The ECMWF is backing off on the strong winds on Friday week with the stronger winds further to the NW, but with the stable weather pattern briefly breaking down (see the met office video above) it is anyone's guess what will happen,
Excellent read John! Very, very informative and thought out! Good luck on your travels again!
ReplyDeleteThanks.
DeleteInteresting read - it demonstrates how important weather forecasts are to a cruising sailor! Huw
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