2025 2nd April Day 3 - ?, Weather and Options, Part 2,

Update Thursday.

Thursday was previously in what is now Part 1. Click here to skip to the next post.

Some divergence between the models for Sunday , if the UKMO is correct it could be rather more  blowy than I would like until lunch time. You never know this might be what happens.

ECMWF & UKMO models for early Sunday.

Lunch time Sunday

Sunday evening.

A bigger divergence on Monday, if the UKMO is correct 

it could get a bit rough in the North Channel, especially when 

the tide turns south at around 14:30.

The ECMWF is backing off on the strong winds on Friday week with the stronger winds further to the NW, but with the stable weather pattern briefly breaking down (see the met office video above) it is anyone's guess what will happen,

Update Friday morning:

Models still in agreement and minimal change thru Sunday lunch time.

Better agreement than previous on Sunday evening favouring
the ECMWFs previous forecast - not untypical beyond 3 days
the ECMWF tends to be better than the UKMO with the latter
 better short term. If this happened exactly (unlikely) I would
be motoring from c 19:00 (Predictwind interpolates between the
forecast points, for the UKMO model they are one hour apart
for 2 days then every 3 hours). I suspect close to land it would be
rather earlier which at least would keep the average up.

Having nothing better to do with my time I spend 10 minutes
recalculating using 4.5 knots as a conservative speed under sail
given the predicted wind and 5.2 knots from Skulmartin under
engine in a slightly choppy sea. Under this scenario I would be in
my bunk around midnight local time and I suspect somewhat earlier
making an early start on Monday a good proposition.

Again good agreement for Monday lunch time, IF this happened I
would be making good speed under the cruising chute or spinnaker.

Which would be just as well as by late evening the wind is
likely to be gone, the good news is that with a southerly wind
much of the day Machrihanish Bay comes into play if going has
been slow but if I could make 4.5 knots and leave at 06:00L it
would be unnecessary as I could just get to Ardminish in daylight.

The ECMWF has given up on strong winds for Friday and both
models are predicting lots of light fluky winds through next
week. Again I have heard that before! But it is in line with the
Met Office 10 day look ahead in the video referenced in the
part 1 of this post.

The above is for Wednesday showing an anti-cyclone (high) stuck over UK
which hopefully will at least give seasonally warm temperatures. 

I await the next few download with baited breath!

Friday pm.

Raining so a bit more planning rather than a trip into Dublin.

Revised outline plan, an extra day or two resting and going up
the sound of Jura in light weather would not be a problem and
could enable a visit to Coll on route to Barra.

The sound of Luing (or the Sound of Islay) is the key to getting out of the Sound of Jura as tides run up to 5 knots at neaps and 7 knots as springs. If planning to make for the Sound of Mull from Fladda (Luing narrows) there are c 13 miles to go to Duart Point and another 7 to the entrance of Loch Aline so you can't leave too late in the tide or it will turn foul before you get there.

Tides start N and W through Dorus Mor (if coming from Crinan) and N through the Sound of Luing at HW Dover - 01:00 on springs and – 0:15 at neaps. 

The 11th is 4 days after neaps, so approx. Dover – 0:38. slack for c 40 mins

HW Dover April 2025

10th 11:00 turning N at 10:22

11th 11:40 turning N at 11:02

12th 12:10 turning N at 11:42

If at Gallanach Bay (Crinan) leave 30 minutes before, otherwise be off Sgeir na Maoile no earlier than the same time.

Tide turns adverse off Duart c 18:00 on the 11th.

Saturday update.

Not a great deal of change in the forecast and good agreement between the models through Wednesday, it looks like very slow going or the engine from Tuesday and possibly on Monday. 

Leaving time on Sunday.

Inshore forecast for Sunday from the UKMO from Sunday 12:00Z:

Lough Foyle to Carlingford Lough 

Outlook for the following 24 hours: East or southeast 3 to 5, becoming variable 2 to 4 for a time at first. Smooth or slight, occasionally moderate at first. Fair. Good.

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Mull of Galloway to Mull of Kintyre including the Firth of Clyde and North Channel

Outlook for the following 24 hours: Easterly or southeasterly 3 to 5 in North Channel, otherwise variable 2 to 4. Smooth or slight, occasionally moderate at first in North Channel. Fair. Good.

And Met Éireann (for the whole of Ireland):

Outlook for a further 24 hours until 06:00, Monday 07 April 2025

Fresh east to southeast winds decreasing moderate to fresh on Sunday morning and decreasing light to moderate in the evening. Fair apart from a little drizzle in the southwest.

Forecast issued at: 06:00, Saturday 05 April 2025

So it looks like a go for tomorrow morning although it could be rather bumpy getting out past Irelands Eye, to be confirmed this evening.

Now it's the UKMO model suggesting strong winds on Friday

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